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2024-12-13 05:50:40

Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 50th consecutive trading day, setting a new record.General Administration of Customs: China's imports of iron ore, coal and natural gas increased in the first 11 months. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of 2024, China imported 1.124 billion tons of iron ore, up 4.3%, and the average import price (the same below) was 768 yuan per ton, down 3.9%; 506 million tons of crude oil, down by 1.9% to 4,208.8 yuan per ton, up by 0.3%; 490 million tons of coal, up 14.8%, 688.4 yuan per ton, down 12.5%; 120 million tons of natural gas, up by 12% to 3,506.2 yuan per ton, down by 5.8%; 97.09 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 9.4% and a decrease of 15.1% to 3,591.7 yuan per ton; Refined oil reached 44.94 million tons, up by 4.5%, reaching 4,322.9 yuan per ton, up by 4.5%. In addition, 26.333 million tons of plastics with primary shapes were imported, a decrease of 2.4% to 10,800 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.1%; The unwrought copper and copper products reached 5.127 million tons, up by 1.7% and 67,700 yuan per ton, up by 11.1%.


Notice: The National Health and Wellness Commission held a press conference on December 10th to introduce the situation of "learning and popularizing Sanming's medical reform experience".The increase of inter-bank interest rate bonds continued to expand. The yield of China's 10-year active bond 240011 hit a new low of 1.86%, falling by 4.50 basis points in the day.Huasu Technology: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is actively docking BMS-related products in the energy storage field. Huasu Technology said on the interactive platform on December 10 that the company and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited are actively docking BMS-related products in the energy storage field, and there is still uncertainty about whether they can reach cooperation in the later stage. Companies in the field of electric vehicle BMS have not been involved yet.


Shenghong cooperated with many partners to build the first off-grid electric vehicle charging station in South Africa. Recently, Shenghong shares joined hands with MagicPower Shanghai Maizike Technology Co., Ltd., Zero Carbon Charge and Greencore Energy Solutions to jointly launch the first off-grid electric vehicle charging station in South Africa. The charging station is equipped with a 480kW split machine, including a host and three charging terminals, with a total of six charging guns, four of which are liquid-cooled and users can enjoy a cruising range of 400 kilometers only by charging for 10 minutes.Google CEO said that its newly released quantum computing chip can complete supercomputing in five minutes. On its newly released quantum computing chip Willow, Google CEO Sundar Pichai said that Willow is an important step to build a useful quantum computer. It has practical applications in drug discovery, fusion energy, battery design and other fields. Its breakthrough can reduce errors exponentially when we use more qubits, and solve the 30-year challenge in this field. In the benchmark test, Willow completed a "standard benchmark calculation" in less than five minutes, and even the fastest supercomputer today takes "10 to the 25th power" years to complete this calculation-this figure is far beyond the age of the universe.The net outflow of the main market exceeded 10 billion.

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